Salmon production ‘set to grow 5%’ in 2025

Norway-based Kontali’s latest forecast for 2025 is based on the expectation of higher biomass, strong production, and lower losses in the first quarter of this year.

The 5% forecast is in contrast to bullish predictions from Oslo-listed salmon companies, which project volume growth of nearly 11% this year, while at the other end of the spectrum, industry commentators expect growth as low as 3%, or even 2.5%.

Kontali’s estimate is based on three to  five year averaged productivity parameters, which serve as the reference point for the most likely scenario.

Lead Analyst, Salmonids with Kontali, Lars Daniel Garshol, said: “With fourth-quarter 2024 results now in, supply growth estimates for 2025 are all positive, but projections vary significantly.

“Company guidance suggests a growth potential exceeding 80,000 tonnes WFE, or nearly 11% year-on-year, but industry projections have often been overly optimistic. 

“The gap between company guidance and actual harvests over the past decade underscores how extraordinary events and shifts in productivity have led to inflated forecasts. 

“Historically, company guidance has factored in expected biological improvements—such as reduced losses, increased weights, and improved yields—more optimistically than final outcomes.

“While this aligns with production trends in recent years, we believe it underestimates the current fundamentals and outlook.”