Iceland’s opposition Social Democratic Alliance has taken a small lead in the country’s parliamentary election at the weekend, based on the partial results released so far.
The Alliance is in favour of joining the European Union, with big implications for the country’s fishing and fish farming industries.
It has overtaken the ruling Independence Party led by current prime minister Bjarni Benediktsson who at the moment says he is standing firm.
The Social Democrats have so far gained 15 seats, the state broadcaster RUV reports, making the party leader Kristrun Frostadottir, among the favourites to become Prime Minister.
Iceland is used to left and right parties sharing power and Benediktsson may well still lead a coalition even with the Social Democrats being in the ascendency.
Although around half the votes in Saturday’s poll still have to be counted the Social Democrats have increased their share of the vote with the current ruling parties losing out.
There are 63 seats up for grabs but only those parties with more than 5% of the vote will actually make it into Parliament.
If the Social Democrats do take the lead in a new coalition, its attitude to open aquaculture is likely to be less sympathetic than the Independence Party. Much will depend on the make-up of any new coalition.
And a move to join the EU cannot be taken for granted either. Iceland’s huge dependence on the fishing industry still makes it a divisive issue.
Joining would mean eventually Iceland having to share its rich fishing grounds with trawlers from other EU countries , but it would probably be welcomed by the salmon farming companies.
Whatever the eventual outcome of the weekend vote, a national referendum on joining the EU is likely to be still some way off.