Norway salmon jitters over Trump’s EU tariff threat
Salmon company shares fell back sharply in Oslo on Friday as it emerged the sector could become caught up in Donald Trump’s tariff threat against the European Union – even though Norway is not part of the trading bloc.
The problem is that thousands of tonnes of Norwegian salmon are shipped daily to countries such as Poland, Denmark and the Netherlands for processing and smoking and are likely to be classified as EU products.
Trump has said he will impose 25% tariffs on products from the EU although he has yet to spell out the details.
The news sent shockwaves throughout the industry and salmon shares falling sharply on the Oslo Stock Exchange with Mowi and Salmar down by over 3% last week.
Carnegie’s salmon analyst Henrik Knutsen told the financial news site E.24 that there is great uncertainty about what will be covered, and possibly when.
It is not really possible to know what Trump actually means, Knutsen argued, and the threat could simply be a negotiating proposal,
Trump has already delivered a blow to the Canadian seafood sector by reimposing the threatened 25% tariffs on goods from across the US-Canada border.
Knutsen adds that Norwegian salmon can potentially circumvent these tariffs due to the country of origin, but if there is no distinction by origin, Norwegian salmon can still be hit by customs duties.
“How that will eventually look, of course, remains to be seen, he told E.24.
Seafood processing capacity in Norway, especially around salmon, is limited and there have long been demands that it should be stepped up, but so far little progress has been made.
That is now likely to change and there is a possibility processing could be switched to non-EU countries such as the UK.
The problem is that no-one yet knows the fine details of Trump’s tariff threat and whether it will include all goods.
Knutsen said SalMar and Bakkafrost have a major advantage due to their processing capacity, making them less reliant on the EU as part of their supply chain.
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