2025 is a turning point, says Salmon Scotland's Tavish Scott

How much this will impact US trade policy is difficult to gauge. However, it’s clear that the US remains a fundamentally important market for Scottish salmon. Scottish companies are eager to expand sales into the US market.

For example, Bakkafrost from the Faroe Islands flies regular consignments directly to Boston. Wester Ross Salmon has been particularly adept at building long-term relationships with customers there.

Companies in the sector are keen to continue, but if tariffs are imposed, countries like Chile, the world’s second-largest producer of salmon, would face serious challenges. The US is their primary and most lucrative market.

Tariffs on Chilean exports would be costly and would also lead to market displacement, as Chilean companies would inevitably explore alternative markets.

Even if tariffs on Scottish salmon are manageable, the wider implications of tariffs on fish imports to the US cannot be ignored.

One final puzzle in US trade policy: Trump was elected partly because seven out of 10 Americans believed they were worse off in 2024 compared to four years earlier. However, if trade policy increases domestic inflation, it could make everyday goods, like those at the weekly shop, more expensive.

Trump no longer faces the pressure of re-election. Yet, it seems a strange political choice to fuel inflation and increase the cost of living through aggressive global tariffs. The American voter is never more than two years away from the next election.

If the cost of living rises, Republicans could lose control of Congress in the 2027 mid-term elections.

EU trade is a priority
Meanwhile, Europe — and France in particular — remains the strongest and most lucrative market for Scottish salmon.

The new Labour government in the UK has committed to negotiating a veterinary agreement with the EU. If successful, this would make food exports significantly easier and provide a much-needed boost to businesses across the UK. However, these negotiations are fraught with political danger.

Prime Minister Starmer has wisely stated that his government will not provide a running commentary on these talks as they unfold.

This is the right approach. No one — neither businesses nor voters — wants a repeat of Boris Johnson’s chaotic EU negotiations, which seemed more aimed at appeasing the Daily Mail than achieving results beneficial to the UK economy.

So, the EU-UK negotiations must proceed with trust and mature, responsible discussion. But Trump looms large here, too. As does the political instability across Europe.

In France, President Macron appears to have reached the end of the road, struggling to find a path to stable government. Berlin, too, is in turmoil. Chancellor Scholz has lost a vote of confidence, his coalition has collapsed, and federal elections are now scheduled for the spring.

Interestingly, Italy, long associated with political instability, now stands out as the most stable government in Europe. Prime Minister Meloni has cultivated a close relationship with Trump, even visiting Florida, and thus enjoys some leverage in Washington.

All of this matters for the Scottish salmon sector, which spans the globe in reach.

There is hardly a wide-bodied jet leaving Heathrow that doesn’t carry Scottish salmon to restaurants or supermarkets across the world.

2025 will be the year of trade disruption. But despite these uncertainties, the Scottish salmon sector has proven resilient.

With a global reach, including expanding markets in Asia and Europe, the sector is well-positioned to navigate the challenges ahead.

Negotiations over local sea farm licences might seem like a smaller hurdle in comparison, but they are a reminder of the day-to-day issues that businesses will face in this tumultuous year.