Brexit no deal ‘will push up fish prices’

THE price of popular fish species such as cod and haddock could shoot up by almost 20 per cent if Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal, a leading investment bank warned at the weekend.
And among the hardest hit will be the fish and chip shop sector, which is already struggling with rising fish prices following a slump in the value of the pound.
The warning has come from Rabobank, which said a hard Brexit will lead to tariffs being placed on imports of fish.
The bank said: ‘The UK exports most of its seafood catch, and what is consumed in the domestic market is mainly imported. Mackerel, langoustine, and scallops are the top three species caught in British waters by British vessels, but they don’t have a market in the UK.
‘These species are exported, predominantly to the EU. On the other hand, cod, haddock, pollock, as well as shrimp and prawns, are the species favoured most by British consumers – yet they are largely imported.’
Rabobank added that salmon was quite different. ‘Two-thirds of the (Scottish) salmon produced in the UK is exported – some 105,000 tonnes – while salmon imports are about half the size of what is produced locally.’
The UK could retaliate, the report said, by imposing counter tariffs on Scottish salmon, herring and mackerel, which are popular on the continent.
‘But this tit-for-tat would likely result in consumers paying more for the most popular seafood and fish products both in Britain and the EU.’
Beyhan De Jong, animal protein analyst at Rabobank, said: ‘In the event of a hard Brexit, we would see tariffs imposed on fish imports, which would likely see Britain\’s fish and chip shops increase consumer prices to cover their own rising costs.’
The findings are part of Rabobank\’s latest report on the UK\’s fishing industry, entitled ‘Fishing for Answers II’.
D Jong warned: ‘An ocean of uncertainty awaits the UK\’s seafood industry should it fail to negotiate trade deals with its neighbours.’
She said that to maintain no or low-tariff seafood trade following Brexit, the UK might need to negotiate an FTA not only with the EU, but also with the Faroe Islands, Iceland, and Norway.
‘Tariffs are one factor adding ‘friction’ to trade. However, with the introduction of borders, in a post-Brexit world, non-tariff barriers such as food safety measures and customs clearance procedures could also create friction for the EU-UK seafood trade.’