Salmon tax could raise four times original estimate

The Norwegian government’s planned salmon tax plan could raise at least four times the figure when the proposal was first announced last September, according to the latest estimate.

In a letter to the Oslo Parliament, the Storting, the Ministry of Finance said the tax is expected to produce NOK 16 to 17bn (£1.18bn to £1.25bn) a year.

This compares to a government estimate of around NOK 3.5bn (£259m) put forward by the government eight months ago.

The new higher figure followed a request by the Conservative Party, which opposes the tax and has pledged to reverse it if is returned to power.

The Finance Ministry stressed that the latest estimate is based on the assumption that salmon prices are in line with the future price of the Fishpool, on an unchanged exchange rate and a 10% increase in production costs and no adjustment in the tax proposal.

The broadcaster NRK reported the Ministry as saying: “Given Høyre’s (Conservative Party’s) assumptions, it can be estimated, on a very uncertain basis, that the proposal for land rent tax would in that case have provided revenue for distribution between the state and the municipal sector of the order of NOK 16-17bn for 2023.,

“For 2024, where future prices are somewhat lower, the proceeds could be in the order of NOK 14–15bn with the Conservative Party’s assumptions.

“It has previously been estimated that the government’s proposal for a ground rent tax on aquaculture will generate tax revenues of around NOK 3.5bn.

“The estimate was based on accounting data for 2021 and tax data for 2020 for all aquaculture companies.”